Oscar 2013: Best Supporting Actress: Battle of the It Girls

The only real race in the acting categories is in Best Supporting Actress, and it's between two women who have been dubbed an "It" girl. That, even though one of them won just last year.

The battle is between Jennifer Lawrence, as the disgruntled New Jersey housewife in American Hustle, and Lupita Nyong'o, as Patsy, a much-abused slave in 12 Years a Slave. Lawrence, of course, won last year in the Best Actress category. If she wins this year she would be the youngest actor to have two Oscars by a long-shot (she's only 23). That she's even a contender here is testament to her incredible popularity, which is start to make me wonder if she made a deal on a crossroads in Mississippi.

When Lawrence was winning her Oscar last year, Nyong'o was an unknown, a Yale Drama school grad. Now she's on magazine covers and dazzling folks on the red carpet. Frankly, she seems set up for the win, especially since I think she deserves it. Her gripping acting in the scene in which Patsy is brutally whipped may be too difficult to watch because of her.

Yet Lawrence has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (but she did not win the BAFTA last year), while Nyong'o won the SAG award. I'm giving Nyong'o the edge here, because I stubbornly believe voters will think back-to-back awards will be too much, too soon for Lawrence.

The other three women don't figure to be contenders. June Squibb is certainly a crowd-pleaser. She's the 84 year old trooper (she was in the original Broadway production of Gypsy) who is the plain-spoken wife of Bruce Dern in Nebraska. But the nomination is the victory here.

Julia Roberts, one of the biggest stars in the universe, hasn't been nominated in 13 years, and picked one up for her role as the put-upon daughter of Meryl Streep in August: Osage County. I think it's Roberts best work in years, and the best performance in a so-so film, and while Roberts is certainly someone who could one day win another Oscar, it's not this year.

Finally there's Sally Hawkins, as the middle-class sister of Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. She's another in a long list of performers nominated for Woody Allen films, and while Blanchett is a likely winner, Hawkins does not. Maybe another year.

Will win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Should have been nominated: Lea Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color