The 92nd Academy Awards: Best Picture

Yes, along with pumpkin spice-flavored everything, the end of summer also means it's time to speculate on who will win Oscars for this year's films. In looking over the releases for the rest of the year, I didn't see that many obvious choices, so it could mean a wide-open year. The preferential voting system and the increase in diversity among Academy voters have made it a little more difficult to handicap, which is good. Last year I hadn't even heard of Green Book at this point in the season.

So here are ten possibilities for this year's award, in alphabetical order.

1917 (Sam Mendes, December 25) Sam Mendes, after two James Bond films, directs a World War I picture, which is on the whole an under-represented war in films. The leads are unknowns, but Colin Firth and Benedict Cumberbatch are in supporting roles. Mendes is an Oscar-winning director, but that was twenty years ago for American Beauty.

Bombshell (Jay Roach, December 20) Expose on the blondes of Fox News and the sexual harassment claims against Roger Ailes. Liberal Hollywood might love a takedown of the evil network, and movies about real people are strangely alluring to voters. Charlize Theron stars as Megyn Kelly, Nicole Kidman as Gretchen Carlson, John Lithgow as Ailes.

The Goldfinch (John Crowley, September 13) A sprawling, Pulitzer-Prize winning novel turns into a film, and it has all the earmarks of being an Oscar favorite. It's the Dickensian story of a boy and a painting. Crowley last directed Brooklyn, which got a Best Picture nod. Fun fact: the only Pulitzer-Prize winning novel to be turned into an Academy-Award-winning Best Picture is Gone With The Wind.

The Good Liar (Bill Condon, November 15) A confidence man story, starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, which should please the older members of the Academy. Not much is known about this, but it certainly could garner acting nominations for the leads.

Harriet (Kasi Lemmons, November 1) Long overdue story of Harriet Tubman, who will someday be on the twenty dollar bill and was a key figure in the Underground Railroad. There are many films coming out this year about race, but this one might be the safest. Lemmons started off strong in her career with Eve's Bayou, but hasn't had a significant film in years.

The Irishman (Martin Scorsese, September 27) You can't count out Scorsese. This is his ninth collaboration with Robert De Niro (the first since Casino--tweny-four years ago!) and his first time directing Al Pacino, playing Jimmy Hoffa. Seems like a no-brainer, except: it's from Netflix, and despite Roma's success last year, there might be a reluctance to give it Best Picture; there's the de-aging visual effects, which may prove distracting; and Scorsese doing a mob picture? Maybe a sense of been there, done that.

Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi, October 18) Films about the Holocaust always used to do well with the Academy, but this one is a bit perverse, in that the main character has an imaginary friend--Adolph Hitler. About a young boy whose mother hides a Jewish girl in the house, and has his beliefs tested. Perhaps the younger skewing Academy will accept this take on World War II.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino, July 26) The only film that has been released that I think will be nominated, and it's a sure thing at this point. The film is a hit, and it's a positive look at Hollywood. Except for the Kill Bill pictures, every Tarantino film starting with Pulp Fiction has had at least one above-the-line nomination, and even a lesser script like Django Unchained won him an Oscar.

Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar, tbd) If there is a foreign film in this year's mix, it might be this study of a film director by Almodovar, who has won two Oscars already. Stars Almodovar regulars Antonio Banderas, who is getting Oscar buzz, and Penelope Cruz. Premiered at Cannes.

The Report (Scott Z. Burns, November 15) Premiered at Sundance. About a senate staffer, Adam Driver, who finds out a lot of ugly stuff about torture implementation in the CIA. Might be the kind of film a liberal Hollywood would love. Annette Bening co-stars as Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Some words on a few other possibilities: The Farewell has already opened and is getting great reviews and screams Oscar, but has yet to open wide and I wonder if it might get swallowed up by other films. A lot of prognosticators have A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood, a biopic about Mister Rogers, high on their lists, but I don't know. Will this film have anything to say that the documentary Won't You Be My Neighbor? didn't say, and what is the conflict? Also, star Tom Hanks hasn't had a nomination since Cast Away, with a lot of chances. Word is he's not as well liked as we think he is.

Finally, what about Avengers: End Game? Black Panther opened the door as the first superhero comic book adaptation to get a Best Picture nod. Avengers: End Game is now the highest-grossing film of all time. So what, you say? Well, starting with Gone With The Wind (Birth Of A Nation, the previous champ, existed before the Oscars), almost every film to hold the top spot has been nominated for Best Picture: The Sound Of Music, The Godfather, Jaws, Star Wars, E.T., the Extraterrestrial, Titanic, and Avatar. The only film not to get nominated was Jurassic Park. With up to ten nominees, I wouldn't discount the Avengers completely.